Estonia’s most popular candidates for prime minister are opposition leaders Urmas Reinsalu of the national-conservative Fatherland party and Mihhail Kõlvart of the Estonian Centre Party, according to a Norstat poll for the Institute of Societal Studies (YI) in August 2026, ERR reports. The survey showed that Reinsalu was the preferred candidate for prime minister with 25% support, while Kõlvart’s support stood at 24%. When asked to choose between the two opposition leaders, 51% would prefer Reinsalu and 32% Kõlvart.
Meanwhile, 16% would like to see Martin Helme, leader of the populist opposition Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), as the next prime minister, the poll showed. Support for Lavly Perling, leader of the non-parliamentary Right-Wingers, stood at 12%, followed by incumbent Prime Minister Kristen Michal, leader of the Estonian Reform Party, with 10%, Lauri Läänemets, leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE), with 9%, and Kristina Kallas, leader of Reform’s coalition partner, Estonia 200 (E200), with 6% support.
While Fatherland has led polls for over a year, pollster Emor’s research director, Aivar Voog, noted that the party’s support was not very firm, ERR reported. In Norstat’s latest poll, Fatherland’s support was 25.6%, followed by the Centre Party with 22.2%, SDE with 14.8%, EKRE with 13.1%, and Reform with 12.7%, ERR reported. Support for the Right-Wingers stood at 5.8% and for E200 at just 1.5%. Based on the poll, Fatherland would win 29 seats in parliament, the Centre Party 25, SDE 15, EKRE 14, Reform 13, and Right-Wingers 5.