Estonia’s most popular party combination for the country’s next government is a coalition of the opposition Fatherland and Estonian Centre Party, according to a new Norstat poll for the Institute of Societal Studies, ERR reports. The survey showed that 29% of respondents would prefer a coalition government of Fatherland and the Centre Party, followed by a three-party coalition of Fatherland, the Social Democratic Party (SDE), and the Estonian Reform Party with 19% support. Meanwhile, 9% of respondents would like to see a coalition of the Centre Party, SDE, and Reform, and 8% a coalition of the Centre Party, SDE, and the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE). The other coalition alternatives had less than 5% support, and another 30% did not indicate their preference.
Meanwhile, as many as 42% of respondents said that Reform should not be part of the next government. Another 40% said the same of Reform’s current coalition partner, Estonia 200, and 39% of EKRE. Also, 26% said that the non-parliamentary Right-Wingers should not be in government, while 21% thought so about SDE. Only 11% said that the Centre Party and 9% that Fatherland should not be part of Estonia’s next government. In terms of party preference, 64% of Fatherland supporters and 62% of Centre Party supporters would prefer a coalition between the Centre Party and Fatherland, ERR reported. Norstat polled 1,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 years and older in October-November 2026.
In three recent polls, the Centre Party has overtaken Fatherland as the most popular party in Estonia, ERR reports. However, the Centre Party’s lead is within the margin of error, and the polls follow different methodologies. In a poll by Emor in October 2026, the Centre Party’s support stood at 20.6%, followed by SDE with 20.4% and Fatherland with 19.4%. In Norstat’s poll in October 2026 also, support for the Centre Party was at 23.1% and for Fatherland at 22.8%, while Turu-Uuringute’s poll had the Centre Party at 23% and Fatherland at 19% support. Taking the three polls together, average support for the Centre Party stood at 22.2%, for Fatherland at 20.4%, and for SDE at 17.0%.