Russia may be planning provocations against the Baltic States or Poland to test NATO unity, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics warned, BNS and LETA reported. Nauseda said that intelligence indicated that Russia could be preparing “targeted kinetic operations” against critical infrastructure in the region. Rinkevics said that the intelligence reports pointed to possible Russian acts of sabotage and hybrid attacks. He stated that the coming months would be “crucial for Baltic security.” Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) warned that Russia could carry out hybrid attacks and provocations against the Baltic States in the near future in an attempt to increase pressure on NATO, LETA reported.
Nauseda announced that Lithuania had strengthened protection of its critical transport and energy infrastructure in response to the potential threat from Russia, BNS reported. He said that authorities were preparing for a broad range of possible attacks that could disrupt the operation of key infrastructure. Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said that Latvia also had increased security at key energy facilities due to risks related to possible Russian provocations, Reuters reported. He said that Latvia had reinforced protection at the Incukalns underground gas storage facility, at hydroelectric power plants, and other energy facilities.
Earlier, US and UK media reported of potential Russian military provocations, possibly involving the use of drones or missiles, sabotage, or troop incursions from Russia’s Kaliningrad region or Belarus, The Baltic Flank reported. However, regional security sources stressed that there was currently no indication that Russia had made a political decision to escalate the situation. Nevertheless, LRT cited a report by Poland-based media outlet Vot Tak that online recruiters on Telegram were offering money for acts of sabotage in Latvia and Lithuania. Moreover, Russia conducted a live-fire military exercise on Lake Peipus bordering Estonia, ERR reported. Russia failed to notify Estonia about the exercise, which was the first of its kind on the lake.
Meanwhile, Russia accused the Baltic States of allowing their territory to be used for “hostile actions” against Russia, LSM reported. A statement by the Baltic embassies in Moscow strongly rejected the claim, BNS reported. Also, Russia intends to sue the Baltic States before the UN’s International Court of Justice for alleged “systematic discrimination” against the local Russian minority, Eesti Ekspress, Re:Baltica, and LRT reported. Latvia’s SAB warned that Russia could use the legal proceedings as pretext for “direct confrontation” against the Baltic States. Estonian security experts suggested that the intensification of the Russian disinformation operations could be linked to upcoming parliamentary elections in Latvia and Estonia, ERR reported.