Estonia’s most popular choice for prime minister is Urmas Reinsalu, chairman of the national-conservative opposition party, Fatherland, according to a new Norstat poll for the Institute for Societal Research (YI), ERR reports. In the survey, 27% of respondents preferred Reinsalu for prime minister in June 2026, followed by Mihhail Kõlvart, chairman of the opposition Estonian Centre Party, with 24% and Martin Helme, chairman of the opposition Conservative People’s Party of Estonia, with 15% support. The chairman of the ruling Estonian Reform Party, incumbent prime minister Kristen Michal, was fourth with 10% support, followed by Lavly Perling, chairwoman of the non-parliamentary Right-Wingers, with 9%, Lauri Läänemets, chairman of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE), with 9%, and Kristina Kallas, chairwoman of Reform’s coalition partner, Estonia 200 (E200), with 5%.
Combined support for Reform and E200 remains dismal at mere 14.2%, according to Norstat’s aggregate polls in May-June 2026, ERR reports. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Michal assured that the ruling coalition would remain united, ERR reported. Also, he dismissed suggestions of a possible cabinet reshuffle, ERR reported. Political scientist Tõnis Saarts said that such a reshuffle would not boost Reform’s popularity at any event. Opposition leaders said that they did not expect the coalition to collapse, either, ERR reported. ERR’s Urmet Kook also expects the coalition to survive until the next parliamentary elections in March 2027, ERR reported. However, after two Reform MPs, former finance ministers Aivar Sõerd and Mart Võrklaev, refused to support the government’s supplementary budget for 2026, SDE MP Raimond Kaljulaid suggested that the ruling coalition was unravelling, ERR reported.